Predictive Marine Accident Modeling is an important element of the overall project. This task comprises the following activities:

• Identification of marine accident causes. This subtask will include detailed study of the causes related to weather, marine system, navigational errors, and human factors.
• Development of accident causation model. This subtask will include linking causes in a logical sequence and defining their dependency and condition of occurrence.
• Implementing a probabilistic approach to accident causation. This subtask will include defining probabilities and dependency of causes.
• Accident analysis. This activity will involve probability analysis of accident causation and estimation of accident probability in given conditions.
• Probability updating. This activity will investigate a method of updating predictive accident probability in light of new information, such as changing weather condition, route, or impact of safety measure.

The proposed framework for Probabilistic Consequence Analysis including the collaborating university partners is shown below.