LRF Project Overview

Project Topic: Scenario based risk management for arctic shipping and operations

The Research Focus

This project focuses on:

  • Defining the most relevant ice conditions and operations scenarios for future arctic activities, especially from the conceptual design perspectives.
  • First principle tools to evaluate the ice induced loads and their occurrence probabilities.
  • The occurrence probabilities for various extreme and accidental loads and limit states derived using advanced structural analysis methodologies.
  • Possible consequences of each limit state.
  • Holistic risk-based approach considering entire life-cycle of the ship or installation and not only on the initial service load conditions.

This holistic treatment will be achieved through a consistent link among these elements and analysis of their effects on the conceptual design phase.

 Scenario based risk management for arctic shipping and operations

As shown in the figure above, risk based scenarios are considered for the entire design and operational life cycle of the ship. This approach comprises several steps: first the environmental conditions have to be evaluated, then the ship-ice interaction has to be analysed applying first principles tools defining the possible consequences and effects on the environment. The link between various tasks is achieved by the close co-operation between the universities and specifically by mobility of the PhD students involved in the project.
A general breakdown of each of the four university partners’ area of focus is shown in figure below. MUN’s focus is on risk assessment and decision-making.

 The work break-down of consortium partners 

 Memorial University's Expertise

Professor Brian Veitch, the Husky Energy Chair and Professor Faisal Khan, the Vale Research Chair of Safety and Risk Engineering, are responsible for two major activities: risk assessment and risk-based decision making. These two activities will be integrated with researchers in other universities. These two activities comprise of four main research topics:

  1. Predictive marine accident modeling
  2. Consequence assessment under uncertainty in arctic environments
  3. Probabilistic risk assessment and its consideration in design and operation of arctic vessels
  4. Risk-based design and operations decision-making