Fiscal Update for 2019-20 but not Beyond

Fiscal Update For 2019-20 but Not Beyond

The recent fiscal and economic update to the 2019 Budget Speech entitled "Working Towards A Better Future" could be labelled "Here and Now". The PowerPoint presentation on the government's website concentrates on the current fiscal year which ends on March 31st, 2020 and therefore this year only has 3 ½ months left in it. The past is forecast with 95% accuracy.

To continue clickhere

Congratulations to Dr. Roberto Martinez Espineira

The Department of Economics and CARE would like to congratulate Dr. Roberto Martinez-Espineira for his latest CARE supported research being published in Energy Economics.

An Update on Offshore Oil and Gas Potential in Newfoundland and Labrador Speaker: Jim Keating, Sept. 27, 2018, 7:30 pm - 9:00 pm, Bruneau Centre, Room 2001

Newfoundland and Labrador has entered a new era in frontier oil exploration and development and the province’s resources are attracting the attention of the global industry.

In their latest resource assessment, Nalcor Energy-Oil and Gas and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador have identified the potential of 11.7 Billion Barrels of Oil and 60.2 Trillion Cubic Feet of Gas in areas covering the upcoming November license round. Bringing the combined potential in less than 7% of our offshore to 49.2 Billion Barrels of Oil and 193.8 Trillion Cubic Feet of Gas. Jim Keating will provide an update on the offshore potential and will take questions from the public.

Time and Location: Thursday, September 27, 2018, 7:30 pm - 9:00 pm, Bruneau Centre, Room 2001.

Federal Government Announces Canada's First Poverty Reduction Strategy

Opportunity for All – Canada’s First Poverty Reduction Strategy

Videos discussing income inequality and poverty rates in Newfoundland and Labrador can be found at https://www.mun.ca/care/presentations/videos.php.

The Department of Economics Visiting Speaker, Kory Kroft

"Salary Disclosure Laws and the Gender Wage Gap: Evidence from Canada."

About this study: It is a well-known fact that women often earn less than men. One hypothesis raised by researchers and policy-makers is that the gender wage gap persists because it is hidden. If true, pay disclosure laws could potentially help close the gap by making salary differentials known to the public and open to scrutiny. In this study, we estimate the causal effect of disclosure laws on the gender wage gap within Canadian colleges and universities.

Labour Market Observer

Labour Market Observer, March 2018 view here.

Examining Tax Fairness in Our Province

View Video here

On the Edge: Memorial University's Contribution to Economic Development

A presentation to: Canadian Re-Generation(s) Conference, Waterford Institute of Technology, April 26 - 28, 2018, Presented by: Dr. Wade Locke

Understanding Muskrat Falls

Presentation given by Stan Marshall, President & CEO Nalcor Energy, February 15, 2018 Understanding Muskrat Falls

Video Recording

We have a Fiscal Problem

Presented to the Board of Trade's 2018 Business Development Summit - Thriving on the edge!

Labour Market Observer

Collaborative Applied Research in Economics CARE LMO

www.mun.ca/care

LABOUR MARKET OBSERVER 17 January 2018

Boo! And you thought Halloween was scary...

Summer days are gone but the Province’s sluggish performance carries on.

Investigating Income Inequality

Is the middle class being hollowed out? Has our standard of living increased? Are Income Disparities Increasing??

The answers are provided in the short video presentations.

Labour Market Observer

The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates continue to paint a gloomy picture of the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) labour market.

Income Inequality and Poverty Series

New Video, Hollowing Out of the Middle Class in Canada  Contact: Dr. Doug May, May 2017

Newfoundland and Labrador Economic Update 2017

Newfoundland and Labrador Economic Update 2017
A Presentation to The Newfoundland Association of The Appraisal Institute of Canada, Dr. Wade Locke, Head, Department of Economics, Memorial University of NL, May 12, 2017

Census 2016 Population Pyramids for St. John's and NL

Census 2016 Population Pyramids for St. John's and NL, D. May

Hollowing Out, NL

Income Inequality and Proverty Series:
Video Presentation, Hollowing Out, NL, April 2017, Authors: D. May & R. Steele

Labour Market Observer

LMO, February 2017, "Much Like The Weather, Unemployment Figures Harsh"
Author: Troy Osmond
Editor: Dr. Lynn Gambin

Asymmetric Demand Shocks and Regional Labour Market Adjustments in Canada

"Asymmetric Demand Shocks and Regional Labour Market Adjustments in Canada", Author:  Michael Sullivan

Prepared for CARE initiative, Department of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

To view the report click here.

Academics' Perspective on Newfoundland and Labrador Public Policy

Department of Economics Series on Public Policy titled: Academics' Perspectives on Newfoundland and Labrador Public Policy

Panelists:
Lisa Moore, English
Stephen Tomblin, Political Science
Karen Stanbridge, Sociology
Russell Williams, Political Science
Kelly Vodden, Social Sciences, Grenfell

Moderator: Ted Blades, CBC

Early Onset of Type 2 Diabetes Among Visible Minority and Immigrant Populations in Canada

Abstract: Type 2 diabetes is a chronic condition that affects nearly over three million Canadians, including immigrants. The timing of the first onset of diabetes has been linked to other severe co-morbidities. Yet, there is a dearth of empirical studies that examine the timing of the onset of diabetes among Canadian, in general, and among immigrants and ethnic minority populations within Canada, in particular. We address this research void by applying event history techniques to the 2013 Canadian Community and Health Survey. Read more.

Understanding Our Labour Markets

Labour Market Observer 

February 2017 "Much Like the Weather, Unemployment Figures Harsh."
Author: Troy Osmond
Editor: Dr. Lynn Gambin

The Newfoundland and Labrador Economy: A Reality Check

The Newfoundland and Labrador Economy: A Reality Check

A Presentation to the Board of Trade's The Power of Possibility: People, Passion, Persistence

Wade Locke, Department of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

To view the presentation, click here.

CARE Forecasts Negative Growth for the 2016 Calendar Year.

Economic activity in the province has improved slightly since the previous forecast, and CARE is now forecasting real GDP growth to be -0.27% for the 2016.  Higher oil production and increasing oil prices are having moderate positive effects on growth. The economy still faces problems with decreasing levels of employment, hours worked and lower wages. Furthermore, declining levels of capital expenditure, fiscal restraint by the government and increased taxes have been and continue to be a drag on growth this year.

Economic News

Household final consumption expenditure (SAAR, $ billion chained, 2007) - 2nd quarter 2016: 1,017.7

The Intelligent Layperson's Perspective on Newfoundland and Labrador Public Policy October 19, 2016

This event is sponsored by the Department of Economics of Memorial University of Newfoundland and Collaborative Applied Research in Economics (CARE) See poster here

Recent Reports

"Review of Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Income, Health and Wealth", Dr. Douglas May, DPhil, & Dr. Kaaren May, MBA, PhD, MayMetrics Analysis Inc. 30 September 2015

"Early Onset of Diabetes Mellitus Among Visible Minority and Immigrant Populations in Canada", Dr. Eric Y Tenkorang

Dr. Eric Tenkorang's research for CARE examines the factors that contribute to the first onset of diabetes among immigrant and visible minority populations in Canada. The results of this research suggest the need to develop of gender-specific interventions, targeted at specific immigrant groups with increased risks of developing diabetes earlier in the life course.

"Econometric Analysis of the Public Opinion Survey", Dr. Roberto Martinez-Espineira, Department of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

A Report Submitted to CARE and the Independent Panel Tasked with Reviewing the Socio-Economic and Environmental Implications of Hydraulic Fracturing in Western NL, Final Report January 2016

State of the NL Economy and Budget 2016

Dr. Wade Locke presented "State of the NL Economy and Budget 2016" to the Rotary Club of St. John's East this morning.

Our Current Fiscal Challenges

Provincial Government Outcomes

On Spetember 29th, the CBC News reported Premier Dwight Ball as saying "We spend more on basic services than any other jurisdiction and based on the research we've seen, I'm certain we don't have the learning outcomes, the health outcomes or the economic outcomes to justify those expenses."  See Video #5 below and visit  CARE's Motion Charts for the OECD Better Life Index at http://www.mun.ca/care/topics/oecd_motion.php or http://nl.communityaccounts.ca/bli/ 

Commentaries

1.  "The Search for Good Governance" Doug May, March 2016
2.  "What We Say Is Important In Our Lives! Doug May, April 2016
3. "What Factors Determine Our Well-Being?" Doug May, April 2016
4. "Steps Towards Good Governance" Doug May, April 2016
5. "Examining Our Social Outcomes"  Doug May, April 2016
6. The Budget: First Impressions Doug May, May 2016
7. Structural Issues  Doug May, May 2016
8. Some Macroeconomic Impacts of Budget DM, May 2016
9. Budget 2016 and Societal Well-Being Doug May, May 2016

Labour Mobility in the Mining, Oil, and Gas Extraction Industry in Newfoundland and Labrador

"CARE Working Paper" with comments welcome.

Charting Progress Towards a Better Life in Newfoundland and Labrador:

CARE Research Report 2016-02
By, Devin Drover

Impact of the Energy East Pipeline on the Oil and Gas Industry in Newfoundland and Labrador - Demonstration of a New Soft-Linking Model Framework

Prepared for Collaborative Applied Research in Economics (CARE) initiative

Kathleen Vaillancourt, ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, Quebec Canada
Yuri Alcocer, Intelligent Energy Consulting (IEC), St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
Oliver Bahn, GERAD and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Leadership Debate Sponsored by CARE

On October 14, 2015, CARE, an intiative of the Department of Economics at Memorial University of Newfoundland, presented a leadership debate by Dwight Ball of the Liberal Party, Premier Paul Davis of the Progressive Conservatives and Earle McCurdy of the New Democratic Party on economic and fiscal issues which are important in Newfoundland and Labrador context.

The debate provided an apportunity to promote greater understanding of both the economic and fiscal issues faciing the province. It is the hope of CARE that this debate will facilitate the ability of Newfoundland  and Labradorians to make a more informed decision on Nov. 30, 2015.

Video of the debate can viewed here

Demonstrating the Economic Contributions of Community Sector Organizations in the St. John's Region: A Pilot Study

Report Presentation

Darlene Scott, Dr. Wade Locke, and Penelope Rowe

Leadership Debate Sponsored by CARE

Save the date of October 14, 2015 between 7:00 pm and 9:45 pm for a debate by Dwight Ball of the Liberal Party, Premier Paul Davis of the Progressives Conservatives and Earle McCurdy of the New Democratic Party on economic and fiscal issues which are important in the Newfoundland and Labrador context.

Leadership Debate Tonight, Oct. 14 at 7:00

Debate Questions Here

Video of The Leadership Debate, October 2015 Here

Features

Presentations

"Labour Market Economics Made Easy"
Doug May, Professor of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

"A Tale of Two Surveys: SEPH and the LFS"
Doug May, Professor of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

"People-Demographics and Productivity in Fishing Industry"
Doug May, Professor of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland

Labour Market Features

NL Labour Market Observer: September 2015
NL Labour Market Observer: August 2015
NL Labour Market Observer: July 2015
A Tale of Two Provinces
NL Human Captial Strategy
The Gender Wage Gap

A Cyclical Downturn or Unsustainable Growth?

CARE Forecasts Continuing Negative Growth in the Newfoundland and Labrador Economy for 2015

PROMOTING TAX FAIRNESS IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR THROUGH THE PERSONAL INCOME TAX SYSTEM

This paper, utilizing various technical indices, analyzed both progressivity and fairness for the Newfoundland and Labrador personal income tax system.  In particular, tax fairness was evaluated in terms of both horizontal and vertical equity.  The conclusion from this analysis is that both taxes and transfers have made the Newfoundland and Labrador system more progressive. 

Dr. Wade Locke Responds to Board of Trade Presentation

Dr. Wade Locke responds to a presentation given to the St. John’s Board of Trade by pollster Don Mills.

CARE Releases New Report - Promoting Tax Fairness in NL through the Personal Income Tax System

A new report that reviews Newfoundland and Labrador’s Personal Income Tax System and discusses income inequality and tax progressivity in the province was released on April 23, 2015 by Memorial’s Collaborative Applied Research in Economics (CARE) initiative.

Presentation from April 23, 2015.

Labour Market Observer & Review

[read more]
Commentary on Labour Market Performance in Newfoundland and Labrador February 2015

News from the CARE initiative

As part of Oil and Gas Week NL, Dr. Wade Locke gave on Thursday February 26, 2015 the luncheon presentation herehere.  Dr. Locke believes that:

CARE Releases Economic Impact Study of Memorial University

A new report that quantifies the significant, substantial and sustainable economic impacts of Memorial University within Newfoundland and Labrador was released today by Memorial’s Collaborative Applied Research in Economics (CARE) initiative.

 Presentation Scheduled Monday, February 2, 2015

Economic Data Release Dates Updated

Release dates for selected economic indicators are now available!  Check them out on our calendar!