Topic: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and its Consideration in Design and Operations of Arctic Vessel
This task will combine outcomes of the earlier steps (accident probability and associated consequences) and subsequently assess risk as a design consideration. This task comprises the following activities:
- Probabilistic risk assessment. In this subtask, results of the predictive accident model will be multiplied with consequences. As consequences are assessed in three domains (asset, environment, and personnel) they all will have different units. An important challenge of this subtask will be to bring all consequences to a common domain so that they can be combined with probability to estimate risk.
- Risk as a design parameter. This subtask will investigate how to use estimated risk as a design criteria. The challenge of this activity will be translating risk into a design criterion and subsequently into design parameters (such as shell thickness).
- Effectiveness of design. In this subtask recommended changes as per risk criteria will be assessed for economical and technical feasibility. This activity will help to assess whether a design is economically and technically feasible.
The proposed steps to develop a Risk-Based Design Framework and a Risk-Based Design Approach, including the collaborating university partners, are shown below.