May 2016 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators

2016 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators.

Real GDP  Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price Residental Unit Sales  Low Price Benchmark Price   High Price
 -0.85%  -0.77%  -0.69%  2.54%  3.49%  4.44%
               
Employment  Low Price   Benchmark Price  High Price Housing Starts  Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price
 -1.30%  1.24%  -1.19%  10.54%  13.04%  15.53%
               
Hours Worked  Low Price   Benchmark Price  High Price Housing Prices  Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price
 -1.23%  -0.95%  -0.68%  -3.26%  -2.75%  -2.24%
               
Hourly Wage  Low Price   Benchmark Price  High Price CPI  Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price
 -0.35%  -0.13%  0.09%  0.99%  1.21%  1.43%
        ** All percentage values in this table represent
annual growth rates for the year 2016**
Retail Sales  Low Price   Benchmark Price  High Price
 3.18%  3.47%  3.76%

 

Key:

Low Price The Low Price of $35.87 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The Low Price respesents a monthly price of $10 less than the forecasted Benchmark Price.
Benchmark Price The Benchmark Price of $43.37 is the average monthly Brent spot price provided by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the year 2016. The forecasted monthly Brent spot price is also provided by the EIA.
High Price The High Price of $50.87 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The High Price represents a monthly price of $10 more than the forecasted Benchmark Price.

 

The forecast was computed using a VAR model with Oil Price and Oil Production as exogenous variables. Values for the economic indicators are obtained from CANSIM (series numbers are available upon request). Residential Unit Sales and Housing Price were obtained from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). All values are nominal except Real GDP. Forecasts assume monthly Oil Production to be approximately 5,708,293 bbls for 2016 and uses complete data as of May 31st, 2016.