April 2017 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators for a 12 Month Horizon

April 2017 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators for a 12 Month Horizon

Real GDP Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Residential Unit Sales Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
3.13% 3.64% 3.94% -3.93% -2.80% -2.16%
               
Employment Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Housing Starts Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
-3.81% -3.75% -3.73% -10.53% -6.04% -3.10%
               
Hours Worked Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Housing Prices Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
-6.61% -6.45% -6.38% -0.18% 0.95% 1.68%
               
Hourly Wage Low Price Benchmark Price High Price CPI Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
3.43% 4.09% 4.53% 2.25% 2.63% 2.88%
        All numbers in this table represent annual growth rates for a 12 month horizon (May 2017 - April 2018)
Retail Sales Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
1.65% 2.12% 2.41%

Key:

Low Price The low Price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $42.67 for a 12 month horizon (May 2017 - April 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).
Benchmark Price The benchmark price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $52.67 for a 12 month horizon (May 2017 - April 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).
High Price The high Price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $62.67 for a 12 month horizon (May 2017 - April 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).

 

 The forecasts above were computed using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. Data sources are available upon request.