Teacher Demand in Newfoundland and Labrador

 

Dr. David Dibbon

Memorial University of Newfoundland

 

 

Abstract

This paper focuses on human resource issues associated with teacher demand in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador.  It will be of interest to education policy makers, leaders and scholars concerned about the quantity and quality of the education labour supply.  The results will provide evidence that there is a high demand for teachers in the rural and remote areas of the province and that there is a high degree of variation in the demand for teachers from one area of specialization to another but there is no overall shortage of teachers.  Major social, political and economic trends and forces that are converging to influence teacher supply and demand are also identified. 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

In a linear and stable world projecting accurate supply and demand numbers would not be a difficult task.  But, early in the 21st century we find ourselves living in a complex and volatile society, where the pace of change is so rapid that it is difficult to predict its consequences or its future direction.  For example, who could have successfully predicted the number of teachers who would opt for early retirement packages that have become popular in recent years, or the impact that the collapse of the cod fishery would have on the province’s population?

 

Today there are many forces, both internal and external to the education environment, that are converging to make the task of predicting teacher demand a challenging one.  There are three main factors that are driving these changes in Newfoundland and Labrador.  First, the trend towards globalization has made many educators more mobile than ever before and emerging technologies are changing the nature of the workplace and the classroom. Second, the past decade has been a turbulent one for people in the education sector as increased calls for accountability, educational reform initiatives and policy changes by the provincial government have resulted in many disruptions to the work life of teachers and administrators, and third, a decrease in population, caused by unusually low fertility rates and high rates of out migration, has placed downward pressure on the student population in the province.  Based on a more extensive study reported elsewhere (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001), this paper will show how forces external to the local environment are making the task of predicting teacher demand an increasingly complex one.  It will also examine teacher demand by looking closely at issues related to local geography as well as areas of subject specialization. 

 

Methodology

 

The study reported in this paper employed a mixed methods approach towards data collection.  A mixed methods approach takes advantage of numerous methodologies that enhance the validity of inferences from the phenomenon being studied and helps uncover new dimensions or paradigms.  Face-to-face interviews, focused group interviews, survey questionnaires, a detailed review of the local, national and international literature, and an extensive examination of statistical data sources that provided information on the distribution and composition of the province's population was undertaken. For example, Statistics Canada Reports, the Educational Staff Records[1] (ESR’S) and Annual General Returns[2] (AGR’s) from the Department of Education (1990-2000) were examined to determine the nature of current demographic trends in the general population as well as for school-aged children. 

 

Also, the nature and extent of present and future demands of school districts in the province were identified and assessed.   The focus was on identifying the human resource issues associated with staffing schools and classrooms with qualified teachers.  To help identify the issues that were pertinent to school districts, a Human Resources Issues Survey was developed and pilot-tested.  The survey inquired about such things as trends and priorities in human resource development, areas of growth, areas of oversupply, identification of critical skills for the future, and a description of strategies used to attract teachers.  Face-to-face interviews were conducted with the 10 out of the 11 Directors of Education and Chairpersons of the School Boards, in the spring of 2000.   The interviews were all recorded, transcribed, coded and analyzed using the constant comparative method (Strauss and Corbin, 1990).  Also, as most of the teacher hiring in this province occurs between April and August, a follow-up telephone interview was conducted with each of the Assistant Directors of Personnel (N = 11) in the fall of 2000, to inquire about the nature of the difficulties that districts experienced in filling vacant positions for that school year. 

 

Reports from the field indicated that some jurisdictions were experiencing difficulties obtaining the services of substitute teachers during the fall semester.  To investigate this phenomenon a Substitute Teacher Availability Instrument was developed and utilized to survey school administrators in each of the school districts.  A stratified sample that included 30% of the schools in each district was selected and responses were generated from 103 of the 115 schools contacted. 

 

 

Factors Affecting Teacher Demand: The Local Context

 

The matter of teacher demand is a complex issue and it increases in complexity when you consider how it varies by grade, subject area, gender, district, location and population.  More so then ever before, we are living in an interconnected world, and to fully understand the nature of the teacher labour market it is no longer adequate to view the situation solely from a local perspective.  To understand the nature of teacher demand in today’s global marketplace, decision-makers and policy-makers must understand what is happening in other markets, and the potential for these markets to influence local ones.  While, his paper does not provide a summary of the situation in other provinces and countries, readers interested in those details are referred to the larger report upon which this paper is based (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001). This paper examines teacher demand in Newfoundland and Labrador within the context of a fast-changing global society where the forces of globalization, demographic shifts, wide-scale educational reform and local policy initiatives have converged to influence the education labour market. 

 

Globalization

Globalization, a word that could not be found in the dictionary a dozen years ago is now one of the most charged issues of the day and is arguably the driving force behind societal and economic change.  It is facilitated by and a facilitator of the new technologies that are constantly transforming the workplace, and just about every other aspect of society.  These new technologies are moving Newfoundlanders from a traditional resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy where workers require highly specialized skills. These skills are in demand around the world and so-called knowledge workers have a wide choice as to where they want to work, and many are opting for higher-paying jobs in other jurisdictions.     

 

How does this affect the demand for teachers in Newfoundland and Labrador?  The answer is two-fold.  First, the trend towards globalization has opened up new markets and career opportunities that were previously unavailable, and as a result the population has become somewhat more mobile.  This situation has created a demand situation in some Canadian jurisdictions that has set in motion a domino effect that has the potential to upset the supply and demand equation in all parts of the country, including Newfoundland and Labrador.  For example, interviews with officials from large school districts in southern Ontario, southern Alberta and southern British Columbia that are in high growth areas indicate that they are experiencing a shortage of teachers because they are being raided by American school districts that are able to offer more competitive compensation packages.  In order to cope with increasing student enrolments (primarily due to increased emigration) and the cross-border raiders, these school districts are forced to look to other jurisdictions as well.  Typically, they recruit teachers from the northern parts of Canada and also from provinces where the teacher compensation package is not as attractive as their own (e.g. Newfoundland).  Consequently, when a school district loses teachers and they do not have the capacity in their teacher education programs to replenish the loss, they recruit new, existing and retired teachers from other locations.  It is common to see school districts from Ontario, British Columbia, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories recruiting teachers in the province of Newfoundland.  Because these districts are guaranteeing jobs and providing attractive compensation packages, there are concerns about the province’s capacity to meet the need for new teachers in this province.

 

Second, changes in the workplace have also resulted in changes to the school curriculum.  These changes in the curriculum have placed an increased focus on mathematics, science and technology and subsequently an increased demand for qualified teachers in these areas. But, because individuals trained in the areas of mathematics, sciences and technology are in high demand in industry (Brown-Peters, 2001), and because the compensation package is usually better than it is in the school system, many “would be” teachers are now bypassing teacher education programs and opting for careers in industry rather than the classroom (Stracker, 1991).  As a result of these career choices, there are fewer graduates available to the school system, resulting in shortages of teachers in these key areas.

 

Policy

Crocker (2000) noted that in the province of Newfoundland policy changes to the teacher allocation formula have had a profound effect on the number of teachers employed in the province.  Following a number of years of instability in teacher allocations resulting from ad hoc adjustments to the teacher allocation formula, a Ministerial panel was appointed by the Minister of Education, in 1999 with a mandate to consider issues of program delivery and particularly the implications for teacher allocations. The teacher allocation policy refers to the way that teachers are allocated to school districts by the Department of Education and a new allocation formula developed and implemented by government resulted in an increase of about 350 positions in the 2000-2001 school year.  In another shift in policy, in February of 2001, the premier of the province announced in the legislature that there would be no teacher lay-offs for the coming school year.  This move allowed the school boards to retain a totalcof  212 teaching units that were scheduled to be removed from the system. 

 

Also, adjustments to the pension plan have changed the retirement patterns of teachers throughout the province.   In the mid 1990's, amid uncertainty surrounding the long-term prospects of their pension plan and severance package, hundreds of teachers who were in their late 40’s and early 50’s, and who under normal circumstances may have remained teaching for additional years in order to top-up their pension, began to retire at a record rate.  Reaching full pension eligibility certainly spurred the exodus but the turbulent, uncertain and conflict-laden environment being experienced at the time also contributed to the decision to "get out" as soon as possible. 

 

Demographics

Often mistaken as a branch of mathematics or science, demography is a discipline that focuses on the study of human populations and how they change over time (Foote, 1996).  In 1978, when the English economist Thomas Malthus published his "Essay on the Principle of Population", it marked the beginning of an era where population trends would be used as a tool to help forecast the future.  Today, few societal institutions are unaffected by population change, and in the education community policy makers use demographic information to foresee adjustments that may be needed in our education system in order to meet the needs of changing student and teacher populations.

 

Population Trends     While the population continues to grow in many parts of the under-developed world, the population in the richer more developed countries has started to slow.  Canada is an example of such a country.  While the Canadian population has enjoyed a steady growth since statistics were first kept at the beginning of Confederation in 1867, the rate of population growth in Canada is slowing down (Kincora Research, 1998).  The province of Newfoundland, on the other hand, enjoyed slow but continuous growth from the mid 1850's until Confederation in 1949 (Kincora Research, 1998).  Following Confederation, population growth accelerated until it peaked at just over 580,000 in 1993.  In the ten years since 1993, the population has decreased by almost ten percentage points to 531,595 people (Newfoundland Statistics Agency, 2003).

 

While out migration is a major contributor to the population decline, it is the current unusually low fertility rate that is causing this negative growth in the population.  Fertility refers to reproductive performance, and the fertility rate is the number of live births per 1000 females between the ages of 15 years and 49 years, in one year.  The ages of 15-49 are the ages that demographers use as a standard to measure total fertility rates.  Since school populations are tied to the number of births, a close examination of fertility rates can provide an indication of the number of children that are likely to enter primary school when they reach the appropriate age. 

 

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the fertility rate has dropped steadily from its peak of 5.9 children per woman in 1957 (Kincora Research, 1998) to 1.15 in the year 2001 (Newfoundland and Labrador Center for Health Information, 2002).  Considering that the replacement level is 2.11 births per woman (in the child bearing years) the Newfoundland population appears destined to decline for many years to come.

 

Obviously, a decline in fertility rates results in a decline in the number of live births.  In 1971 there were just over 12,500 live births in the province (Kincora Research, 1998), which accounted for 2.35 percent of the total population.  In the year 2001 there were less than 5000 live births, which equals less than one percent of our current population (Newfoundland Statistics Agency, 2003). When the number of births drops below the replacement level (2.11), the age of the people in the community begins to increase (see Figure 4) - a phenomenon observed by all those who are familiar with rural Newfoundland communities.  And, as everyone knows, an aging community doesn't need as many schools or educators as a youthful one.

 

Figure 1:Median Ages of Newfoundland Population: Actual and Projected[3]

 

While there is some evidence that the population decline is slowing, there are still high numbers of Newfoundlanders migrating to locations outside the province (see Table 1).  During the past few years, the high emigration rates have been offset by higher than normal immigration rates and they have momentarily slowed the population decline.  However, there is no fundamental or statistical evidence to suggest that the decline in the number of births will reverse itself soon, if ever.  The implication, of course, is that the general population is likely to continue to decline for many years to come, and as a direct result the population of school-aged children will decline as well.  When combined with an aging society, a decline in the school-aged population will certainly soften the overall demand for teachers. 

 

Table 1: Components of Population Growth 1997-2000[4]

 

Component

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

Births

5,245

4,899

5,060

4,804

4,689

Deaths

4,340

4,095

4,188

4,282

4,420

Inter-provincial In Migration

7,392

7,995

8,400

7,499

11,694

Inter-provincial Out Migration

16,882

13,690

12,663

11,992

14,204

Net Inter-provincial Migration

-9,490

-5,695

-4,263

-4,493

-2,510

Immigration

421

378

425

450

417

Total Emigration

324

344

365

382

402

Net Non-permanent. Residents

-288

452

313

-158

5

Net International Migration

-191

486

373

-90

20

 

 

Student Enrollment Trends   In the province of Newfoundland the youth population is expected to drop considerably over the coming years.  A decline in the number of live births  coupled with high rates of out-migration (see Table 1) means the school-aged population in Newfoundland and Labrador is declining at a precipitous rate.   A comparison of the live birth numbers with the numbers entering kindergarten five years later shows a drop in numbers, as high rates of out-migration have tended to significantly reduce the size of the cohort entering school (see Table 2).  This report confirms trends identified in earlier reports by Crocker  (1998, 2000) and the Ministerial Panel on Education (2000) that have pointed to a continuous decrease in student population.  Unfortunately, as the data from this study confirms, the projected numbers continue to get lower.  In 1998 Crocker projected a student population of 58,655 in the school year 2010-2011 and last year the Ministerial Panel on Education projected 58,600.  Projections[5] completed for this study place the student population at 57,710 (see Table 2). 


 

Table 2: Student Enrolment :Actual and Projected 1990-2011

 

 

Births[6]

 

Survival rate birth to K[7]

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

12+

Special.

Educ.

Total

1985-86

8500

0.992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1986-87

8100

0.987

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1987-88

7769

0.982

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988-89

7487

0.992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1989-90

7762

0.961

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990-91

7604

0.981

8435

8843

9116

9127

9254

9288

9696

9870

10577

10591

10629

10035

8975

1708

885

127029

1991-92

7166

0.951

7994

8558

8813

9034

9092

9220

9308

9863

9863

10442

10752

10112

9481

1864

737

125133

1992-93

6918

0.936

7630

8053

8473

8746

9012

9045

9183

9430

9777

9750

10418

9989

9310

2192

764

121772

1993-94

6421

0.911

7431

7693

7840

8403

8657

8931

9007

9227

9406

9639

9757

9850

9329

2290

713

118273

1994-95

6339

0.917

7568

7431

7581

7846

8242

8664

8827

8943

9250

9211

9574

9221

9196

1762

694

114010

1995-96

5847

0.934

7465

7510

7273

7441

7639

8264

8434

8793

9072

9060

9101

9136

8493

2182

593

110456

1996-97

5542

0.941

6822

7436

7317

7128

7299

7664

8069

8416

8808

8844

8874

8565

8479

1693

791

106205

1997-98

5250

0.931

6478

6721

7263

7141

6932

7300

7444

7963

8531

8560

8693

8378

8040

1452

712

101608

1998-99

4842

0.941

5855

6492

6568

7119

7015

7010

7159

7512

8100

8384

8617

8352

7918

1300

 

97401

1999-00

4724

0.931

5817

5912

6400

6588

7123

7012

6871

7211

7479

8044

8297

8140

7822

1241

 

93957

2000-01

4461

0.941

5466

5766

5810

6290

6480

7108

6951

6869

7395

7540

8035

7932

7523

1002

 

90167

2001-02

4300

0.941

5215

5417

5668

5711

6189

6467

7044

6951

7048

7454

7532

7681

7329

963

 

86669

2002-03

4300

0.941

4888

5168

5325

5572

5620

6177

6409

7044

7132

7104

7447

7201

7097

938

 

83122

2003-04

4200

0.941

4556

4844

5080

5234

5483

5609

6121

6409

7227

7189

7097

7119

6654

908

 

79530

2004-05

4200

0.941

4398

4515

4762

4994

5150

5472

5559

6121

6576

7285

7182

6785

6578

852

 

76229

2005-06

4100

0.941

4198

4358

4438

4681

4914

5140

5423

5559

6280

6629

7278

6866

6269

842

 

72875

2006-07

4000

0.941

4046

4160

4284

4363

4606

4904

5094

5423

5704

6330

6622

6958

6344

802

 

69640

2007-08

4000

0.941

4046

4010

4089

4211

4293

4597

4860

5094

5564

5750

6324

6331

6429

812

 

66410

2008-09

3900

0.941

3952

4010

3942

4019

4144

4284

4556

4860

5226

5609

5744

6046

5850

823

 

63065

2009-10

3800

0.941

3952

3916

3942

3875

3955

4136

4245

4556

4986

5268

5603

5491

5587

749

 

60261

2010-11

3800

0.941

3858

3916

3849

3875

3813

3947

4099

4245

4674

5026

5263

5356

5074

715

 

57710

ratios[8]

 

0.941

0.991

0.983

0.983

0.984

0.998

0.991

1

1.026

1.008

0.999

0.956

0.924

0.128

 

 


 

 

In spite of the severity of this trend there is little likelihood that the trend will reverse itself soon. We have already established a fertility rate amongst the lowest in the world, a continuous decline in the number of live births and high rates of out-migration, and since the last wave of immigrants from Ireland in the late 18th century the province has not been a major recipient of immigrants.  From the period 1956 to 1993 Statistics Canada[9] reports that Newfoundland has consistently captured only around three percent of immigrants to Canada and that it is evident that many of the immigrants to Newfoundland stay for a relatively brief period before moving to larger population centres in Canada. 

 

Teacher Retirement Trends             One of the best indicators of demand is the number of teachers who are eligible for retirement.  A close look at the age distribution of the teachers in Newfoundland and Labrador shows large cohorts that are currently between the ages of 45 to 49 (Education Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63).  Many of the teachers who would have been in the 50 plus category have recently retired; taking advantage of newly negotiated early retirement options.  Assuming that there are no changes in the retirement options available to teachers, and teachers continue to opt for retirement as soon as they are eligible for a full pension, over 40 percent (2,789) of the current teacher population will be eligible for retirement over the next decade (Education Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63).  There is no way of predicting the exact number that will retire and data concerning the exact number that will have reached full pension eligibility is difficult to access.  However, data from Education Statistics 2000-2001 indicates that just over 2,400 teachers have 20 or more years of teaching experience (p. 62) – all of these individuals will be eligible for a full pension within the next ten years.  Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that approximately 2,500 teachers will retire over the coming decade, especially since the trend these days is for teachers to retire as soon as they reach full pension eligibility. 

 

With these older cohorts being considerably larger than the cohorts between the ages of 20-29 and 30-39 (Educational Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63) it would seem logical to assume that the future demand for teachers will increase above recent levels in order to replace the larger cohort that retires.  But, in Newfoundland and Labrador, unlike in many other parts of the country, the general population is decreasing annually and student enrolments are paralleling this general trend.  If this trend continues, and at this time there is no reason to think that it will not, then the overall demand for teachers in this province will not be as pronounced as if the population were more stable.  The model used by the Ministerial Panel on the Delivery of Education (2000), projects that the number of teachers will have dropped from the current 6,300 to around 5,000 by the 2005-06 school year and to around 4,000 by the year 2010-2011. With approximately 2,500 teachers eligible to retire during that time period it is obvious that the overall demand for new teachers will not be high.


 

Measures of Teacher Demand

 

Perhaps the single best measure of teacher demand is to listen to the reports and views of the practitioners who are working in the schools and school districts on a day-to-day basis.  It was known from the beginning of the research that it would not be enough to simply look at the demographics, and it was imperative that educators in the field be given a chance to describe their experiences.  In sharp contrast to what one might expect after examining the demographic data, there was widespread concern expressed by the Directors of Education and the Assistant Directors of Personnel that there were some serious shortages developing, particularly in rural and remote regions of the province (e.g. Labrador coast, the northern peninsula and the south coast), and in certain subject areas (e.g. administration, guidance, mathematics, chemistry, physics, special education and French).  One of the clearest points to emerge from this phase of the research is that the demand for teachers varies from one area of specialization to another, as well as from one location to another. Many of these administrators expressed concern that they were experiencing serious difficulties staffing their schools with qualified teachers and they were concerned that the situation was deteriorating rather then improving. This comment by one of the director’s summed up the view of most.

 

I can recall people coming in very heavily qualified in certain disciplines.  It wasn’t unusual to see a real strong Chemistry major applying for a job with 10-15 courses in Chemistry or a real strong Math or a real strong Physics kind of person. My sense is, we’re not seeing the same number of these heavily qualified....applying for the profession.  I don’t know if we’re losing them to other fields but we’re not getting that depth of scholarship in a given area like Chemistry, for example, or Math and that’s a real worry for me.  We still have it in English or Literature because there seems to be more of those but I don’t see it on the Science side.  I don’t see them coming in and that worries me.

 

Comments like this one led the investigators to examine teacher demand by looking at the areas of specialization as well as local geography.

 

Areas of Specializations

Due to the eclectic nature of teaching assignments, the fact that teaching assignments change from year to year, and the manner in which the data is currently collected, it is difficult to predict precisely what the teacher demand will be in a particular subject areas for a given period of time.  Also, categorizing educators in terms of what they teach is not an easy task because most teachers teach more that one subject, or take on some administrative tasks (e.g. administrative appointment, department head, guidance, etc.) in addition to teaching.  Therefore, the number of teachers who teach a particular subject, for example English, is a much larger number than the number of the teachers who are primarily English teachers.  The former may teach only one class of English; the latter may teach only English.  Nevertheless, by looking at the number of teachers who have in excess of 25 years teaching experience and who are assigned subject teaching duties in the secondary school system (where the demand appears to be highest), we can get an indication of the subjects where the demand might exist in the coming years. 

 

There are a significant number of teachers currently teaching in the areas of mathematics (N = 680), science (N = 580), English (N= 720), French (N=123) and social studies (N =627) who are scheduled to retire within the next five years.   Obviously, with the province’s declining enrolments there will not be a need to replace all of these teachers.  However, there will certainly be jobs for some new teachers.   There is evidence to show that replacing teachers in the areas of language arts and social studies will not be a problem because the vast majority of prospective teachers enrolled in the Faculty of Education, and teachers who are in the substitute teacher pool, have training in those areas (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  The numbers do seem to support the belief though that there will be difficulties in the areas of mathematics and science, simply because there does not exist a pool of teachers who are qualified in those areas waiting to enter the profession (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  Nor are there large numbers of students with training in these areas entering the Faculty of Education.  An analysis of the enrolment figures for the Faculty of Education for the 2000-2001 academic year shows less that a dozen applicants in the area of mathematics and less than 50 in the sciences (Final Report Admissions Committee 2001). 

 

There were also a number of concerns expressed about the ability to meet the demand for teachers required in the post-degree areas of school administration, special education and guidance.  While many are trained in the areas of administration and special education indications are that this is not a position that they desire to work in at this time (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  In these instances the issue is not one of a lack of supply but one where the job itself is unattractive.

 

School Administration

There was considerable concern expressed about the number and quality of applicants for administrative positions.  Representatives for each of the districts indicated that an inadequate compensation package combined with the increased responsibilities of the job (e.g. dealing with school councils) was a deterrent and prevented many potentially strong candidates from even applying.   Directors referred to instances where teachers had told them directly that the job just wasn’t worth the hassle for the little extra compensation.  They also referred to administrative vacancies that couldn’t be filled because there were no suitable applicants, and in rural areas of the province some Directors indicated that they had to approach teachers directly and ask them to accept an administrative appointment on a trial basis.

 

Administrators, in particular, are a concern of mine because in the past summer we advertised some administrative postings that say 10 years ago you would have had 15-20 teachers competing for, and this past summer we had to pick up the phone and call people – we never had to do that before.

 

 

Since school administrators typically advance to the position through the route of classroom teacher, it is difficult to imagine that there is a supply problem.  In 1999 there were just over 6,200 teachers employed in the province.  This is a fairly large pool from which to develop and nurture future administrators, however, at the present time there are few teachers who aspire to be school administrators and as a result the demand is not being met.

 

With over half (334 out of 594) of the current school administrators eligible for retirement in the next ten years (Educationl Statistics, 2001), school districts must be assured that they will have an adequate pool of applicants from which to choose future school administrators.  Until recently there has not been a problem attracting well-qualified administrators, but at this time it appears as if quality is a very real concern.  Fortunately for districts, this is one area where they have the capacity to intervene and solve their own problems.  At this time, districts need leadership development programs to identify and develop future leaders by linking them with mentors and providing opportunities for them to practice and refine their leadership skills.  Only by investing in this sort of training and development can districts be confident of an adequate pool from which to choose.

 

The other major issue is providing an adequate compensation package for administrators[10].   Changing the package to one that will assist in attracting the best candidates is another issue, one that has implications for collective bargaining and cannot be solved solely by the employer.  In any event if the position is no longer attractive to teachers because of influences such as increased time commitments, and a poor remuneration package, then the stakeholders must work collectively to find a solution to what appears to be problem with workload more so then supply. 

 

With high numbers of current principals eligible to retire within the next decade there will be a high demand for school administrators.  An analysis of the Educational Staff Records for the 1999-2000 school year revealed that there were 214 teachers currently employed in the school system who expressed an interest in working in school administration sometime within the next two years and another 178 teachers indicated they were interested in beginning a graduate degree in educational administration sometime in the next five years.   There is no way of knowing anything about the quality of these candidates or the conditions under which they will allow themselves to compete for a school administrator position.  However, we can assume that there will be a fairly consistent pool of candidates from which to hire administrators, if the situation is right.

 

Special Education

The area of special education is another area that deserves considerable attention at this time.  Reports from the field indicate that the attrition rates for special education teachers are higher than for all other teachers.  In fact, many of the district office personnel feel that special education is becoming a gateway degree for many teachers wanting to gain access to other positions in the school system.  Since special education is a post-degree program, the teachers who graduate with this qualification also hold other qualifications.  Consequently, they use the special education degree to procure their initial appointment and then within a couple of years transfer to a regular classroom position.  Under normal circumstances this would not be an undesirable situation.  However, at this point in time there are not enough qualified special education teachers waiting to replace them. 

 

One thing I am finding is that special education teachers, especially the ones dealing with severely challenged children are becoming burned out. . . .There are a number of special education teachers. . . .who really would welcome an opportunity, and are seeking an opportunity to move out into the so-called regular stream.  Now that creates a situation in our district because we are saying to these people we have a supply issue, so we can’t let you go out.  You have to stay [in the special education class] and that is not a good situation (Director of Education).

 

According to the Education Statistics Report for the school year 1999-2000 there were approximately 900 positions in the school system that required a special education qualification.  However, an analysis of the Education Staff Records for the same year indicates that there were only 700 teachers with a special education degree.  Since we know from the interviews with the Director’s that not all of these teachers are teaching special education, it is obvious that well over 200 teachers are currently teaching special education without the required qualifications.   Many of these are working to complete their special education degree; some are people who managed to get a job before they finished their program and others have enrolled in the special education program as one of the conditions of employment.  Any way you shape it, there are too many teachers teaching special education without a full knowledge of the area.  This in itself indicates that there is a high demand for teachers with special education qualifications, and if current trends continue then the demand will continue to exceed the supply for special education teachers.  This appears to be an area of opportunity for new teachers if they are mobile and willing to relocate. Of course, not all of them are – this is one of the reasons there are still qualified special education teachers in the substitute teacher pool. 

 

Guidance

Many of the directors and assistant directors identified guidance as an area where shortages were beginning to emerge.  With a recent change in policy that makes it possible for a school district to reduce their ratio of guidance counselors to students from 1:1000 to 1:500 the demand for guidance counselors could increase substantially over the next couple of years.  Therefore guidance could also be an area of opportunity for teachers who are considering graduate studies.  Analysis of the Educational Staff Records for the 1999-2000 school year indicated that there were approximately 300 teachers who indicated that they intended to begin a graduate program in guidance within the next five years.  If the Faculty of Education is prepared to admit these people into their program it should help to alleviate any shortage in that area.

 

 

Geographical Areas

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that schools in certain parts of the province, notably rural and remote regions, are experiencing much greater difficulty in attracting qualified applicants for teaching positions.  For example, in some areas of coastal Labrador, there were still positions unfilled at the beginning of this school year (2000-2001) and it is common practice to receive only one or two qualified applicants for many positions in remote communities.  In contrast, a similar position in one of the more urban areas of the province could attract well over 200 applicants.  The situation in the remote areas of the province is becoming more and more critical and the provincial government has just recently announced an additional  $5,000 income supplement, similar to one approved for nurses, for teachers in isolated coastal Labrador communities.

 

The difficulty of attracting teachers to rural and remote communities is not restricted just to Labrador.  There were numerous reports of schools located within a one or two hour drive from a major urban center experiencing similar difficulties, especially for the subject areas where the demand is high.  However, for the most part the situation in the larger urban centers is not nearly as acute.  It is well known in Newfoundland that many teachers gravitate towards the urban centers and once they get a full-time position in these communities they usually stay for a while.     

 

Traditionally in Newfoundland and Labrador, many teachers would take an initial teaching assignment in one of the rural or remote areas of the province in order to gain teaching experience, as positions in the urban centres usually went to teachers with more experience.  Sometimes these teachers would stay in the rural community for their whole career and others would leave after one or two years.  In any event, under this scenario it was possible to staff these schools with qualified teachers, even if the turnover was high.  Today, because of other opportunities in or near urban communities in the province and new opportunities that appear to be more economically competitive in other regions of the country and the world in general, new teachers aren’t as willing to follow the same career patterns.  As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract teachers to rural and remote regions of the province, especially on the Labrador coast and small communities along the northern peninsula and the south coast.  Also, as more of the teachers with a specialization in the areas of high demand (e.g. mathematics, chemistry etc.) reach retirement age, the situation is likely to worsen.

 

 

Substitute Teacher Availability

 

Since not all schools in the province have access to a large pool from which to draw substitute teachers, there are varying degrees of difficulty in filling these positions. When asked if they experienced much difficulty finding substitute teachers to fill in for their regular teachers on a day-to-day basis, over 50% of the administrators indicated getting a substitute is a challenge every now and then and over 20% indicated that it is a problem frequently or all of the time.  Only 25 % of respondents indicated that it was not a problem in their school.  

 

When type of community was used to distinguish the pattern of responses, it was clear that finding a substitute teacher was more challenging in rural parts of the province as 80% of rural schools indicated that they experienced difficulties at least “every now and then”.  While acknowledging that some urban schools do experience difficulties obtaining substitutes, only 9% of the 34 urban schools indicated that difficulty in getting a substitute was experienced “frequently”.  In fact, 91% of 34 urban responses were in either the “every now and then” or “hardly ever” categories.

 

The analysis also showed that some regions of the province experienced more difficulty than others when it came to retaining the services of a substitute teacher.  Administrators in Districts One and Two and parts of Four and Five experienced much greater difficulty finding substitutes then their counterparts in other districts.  In fact, 83% of the schools in District One and 55% of the schools in District Two report difficulty "all the time" or "frequently".  No one in either of these two districts indicated that locating a substitute was  "hardly ever a difficulty”.

 

With the exception of certain parts of District Four and Five, the other districts do not appear to be experiencing the same degree of difficulties as District One and District Two.  This is not to indicate that no problems exist in the other districts, only the problem does not appear to be quite as severe.  The comment by one administrator that “the scarcity of substitute teachers is a very serious matter for the schools that face the problem” reflects the opinions expressed by many who were interviewed. 

 

 

Conclusion

 

The truth behind the reputed shortage of teachers is that there is no overall teacher shortage in the province of Newfoundland at the current time, and if the current trends in the number of live births, the total fertility rate, the number of children entering school, and out-migration don’t reverse themselves soon - then an overall shortage is not likely to develop in the near future.  Unfortunately, there is very little reason to think that these trends will reverse themselves or even level off in the near future. With fewer children entering school and projections that show the student population will decrease in excess of 30% over the next decade, the teaching population is also likely to decrease proportionally, unless there are policy changes by the government.   Even with high numbers of teachers scheduled to retire over the next decade, if the Faculty of Education continues to graduate teachers at the current rates, these new teachers combined with those in the substitute teacher pool will be sufficient to meet future demand.

 

But, we cannot become complacent just because the numbers indicate there will be enough bodies to sit at the teacher’s desks.   To ensure a teaching force of quality, which has to be the overriding goal of policy-makers, it is not acceptable to have teachers teaching students in areas for which they are not fully qualified. However, unless the Faculty of Education can attract students who have degrees in the areas of highest demand there will be a problem supplying teachers with these specialties.  Similarly, unless rural districts and communities can make life in a small community attractive for new teachers then their difficulties attracting and retaining new teachers to these locations are likely to persist.  Rural communities attempting to attract and retain other professionals, particularly those in the health care sector, are also facing this challenge.

 

Achieving a balance in the areas of specialization and recruiting qualified teachers to work in rural and remote communities are very real problems – problems that probably won’t be solved if policy-makers continue to act within the parameters of existing legislation.  More radical solutions are therefore required.  These solutions are likely to be expensive and may well prove to be unpopular with many groups within the political and education community in the province.  Without a doubt, they will include a consideration of how young people can best learn in the absence of traditional classroom teaching.


 

References

 

Brown-Peters, L. (2001). Career transition of education graduates from Memorial

University.  Unpublished Master’s Thesis.  Memorial University of Newfoundland.

 

Crocker, Robert. (2000).  Issues in teacher supply and demand in Newfoundland and

Labrador.  Unpublished research report.

 

Crocker, Robert. (1998).  Teacher supply and demand in Newfoundland and

Labrador.  St. John’s: Memorial University of Newfoundland.

 

Dibbon, D.C. and Sheppard, B. (2001).  Human resource issues in the supply, demand

and retention of teachers in Newfoundland and Labrador. St. John’s: Memorial University of Newfoundland.

 

Foote, D. (1996).  Boom, bust and echo. Toronto: MacFarlane, Walter and Ross.

 

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Education (2000).

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classroom.  St. John's: Author.

 

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Education.  Education

Statistics (Annual 1990-2001). St. John’s: Author.

 

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Education.  (2000).

Educational Staff Records.  Unpublished.

 

Newfoundland Statistics Agency. (2003). http://www.nfstats.gov.nf.ca/Statistics/

(Retrieved January 12, 2003)

 

Kincora Research. (1998).  Demographic dimensions of slowing population growth in

Newfoundland and Labrador.   Report prepared for the Department of Education, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

 

Memorial University of Newfoundland. Fact Book. (Annual 1990-2000). St. John’s:

Author.

 

Memorial University of Newfoundland.  Final Report of the Admissions Committee.

(Annual 992-2001). St. John’s: Faculty of Education.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Health Information.  Annual Report.  Annual

(2000-2001). St. John’s: Author

 

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Straus, A. and Corbin, J. (1990).  Basics of qualitative research: Grounded theory,

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Straker, N. (1991). Teacher supply in the 1990’s: An analysis of current developments. In

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[1] The Educational Staff Records is a statistical data base on teachers that is maintained and updated every 3-4 years by the Department of Education.

[2] The AGR is annual report that schools and districts file with the Department of Education.

[3] Source: Kincora Research, 1998.

[4] Source: Newfoundland Statistics Agency, 2003.

[5] These projections were done by the author and are based upon estimates of the number of live births that Statistics Canada is projecting for the province up to 2006.

[6] Source up to 2000: Newfoundland and Labrador Center for Health Information 2001,and Newfoundland Statistics Agency 2001. After 2000, Statistics Canada catalogue no.  91-520.

[7] Survival for 2001–2010 were set by the author.

[8] The ratios used to calculate survival rates between grades were the actual rates for the 2000-2001school year.

[9] Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue No. 91-520.

[10] Since this report was completed Government and the NLTA have negotiated a new collective agreement and some of the concerns expressed have been addressed.  This may make the position more attractive for some candidates.