July 2015 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators

2015 Forecasts For Prime Economic Indicators - Based on July's Data

Real GDP   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price  Residential Unit Sales   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price 
-3.81%  -3.75%  -3.68%  3.56%  3.94%  4.31% 
               
Employment   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price  Housing Starts   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price 
-0.46%  -0.45%  -0.45%  -19.80%  -19.08%  -18.35% 
               
Hours Worked   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price  Housing Price   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price 
0.81%  0.88%  0.95%  -4.90%  -4.83%  -4.76% 
               
Hourly Wage   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price  Consumer Price Index (CPI)   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price 
-1.05%  -1.02%  -0.99%  0.14%  0.20%  0.26% 
                    ** All percentage values in this table represent
annual growth rates for the year 2015**
Retail Sales   Low Price  Benchmark Price  High Price 
1.35%  1.41%  1.48% 

 

Key:

 

Benchmark Price The Benchmark Price of $54.08 is the average monthly Brent spot price provided by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the year 2015. The forecasted monthly Brent spot price is also provided by the EIA.
Low Price The Low Price of $50.75 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The Low Price respesents a monthly price of $10 less than the forecasted Benchmark Price.
High Price The High Price of $57.42 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The High Price represents a monthly price of $10 more than the forecasted Benchmark Price.

 

 

The forecast was computed using a VAR model with Oil Price and Oil Production as exogenous variables. Values for the economic indicators are obtained from CANSIM (series numbers are available upon request). Residential Unit Sales and Housing Price were obtained from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

 


 

 

Note:

  • All values are nominal except Real GDP.
  • Forecasts assume monthly Oil Production to be approximately 5,771,188 bbls.

 

*Forecast uses complete data as of July 31, 2015*