January 2015 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators

2015 Forecasts For Prime Economic Indicators - Based on January's Data

Real GDP Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Residential Unit Sales Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
1.24% 1.28% 1.32% 9.50% 10.03% 10.57%

 

             
Employment Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Housing Starts Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
-0.77% -0.74% -0.72% 25.28% 26.27% 27.26%
               
Hours Worked Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Housing Price Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
-0.74% -0.60% -0.46% 0.21% 0.43% 0.64%
               
Hourly Wage Low Price Benchmark Price High Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
-1.44% -1.32% -1.20% -0.64% -0.50% -0.36%
        ** All percentage values in this table represent
annual growth rates for the year 2015**
Retail Sales Low Price Benchmark Price High Price
2.61% 2.72% 2.84%

 

 

 

Key:

Benchmark Price The Benchmark Price of $60.70 is the average monthly Brent spot price provided by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the year 2014. The forecasted monthly Brent spot price is also provided by the EIA.
Low Price The Low Price of $54.03 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The Low Price respesents a monthly price of $10 less than the forecasted Benchmark Price.
High Price The High Price of $67.36 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The High Price represents a monthly price of $10 more than the forecasted Benchmark Price.

 

 

The forecast was computed using a VAR model with Oil Price and Oil Production as exogenous variables. Values for the economic indicators are obtained from CANSIM (series numbers are available upon request). Residential Unit Sales and Housing Price were obtained from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

 


 

Note:

  • All values are nominal except Real GDP.
  • Forecasts assume monthly Oil Production to be approximately 6,640,456 bbls.

*Forecast uses complete data as of January 31, 2015*