February 2017 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators for a 12 Month Horizon

Real GDP	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Residential Unit Sales	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-3.49%	-3.04%	-2.68%		4.10%	5.69%	6.77%
Employment	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Housing Starts	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-2.49%	-2.31%	-2.17%		2.43%	7.56%	11.09%
Hours Worked	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Housing Prices	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-3.15%	-2.73%	-2.45%		-5.85%	-4.63%	-3.82%
Hourly Wage	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	CPI	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-1.00%	-0.36%	0.07%		2.26%	2.65%	2.91%
				All numbers in this table represent annual growth rates for a 12 month horizon (March 2017 - February 2018)
Retail Sales	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-0.78%	-0.16%	0.26%

Key:

Low Price	The low Price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $44.5 for a 12 month horizon (March 2017 - February 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).
Benchmark Price	The benchmark price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $54.5 for a 12 month horizon (March 2017 - February 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).
High Price	The high Price was computed assuming an average Brent (USD) price of oil of $64.5 for a 12 month horizon (March 2017 - February 2018). The oil price forecasts are provided by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA).

 

 The forecasts above were computed using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. Data sources are available upon request.